AI and Transhumanism in Future Warfare
Redefining the Nature of Conflict Beyond Traditional Limits
The paper "War Becoming Phantasmal: A Cognitive Shift in Organized Violence beyond Traditional Limits" by Dr. Ben Zweibelson published in the Marine Corps University Press argues that the way humans have understood and engaged in war is changing dramatically. With advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and potential human enhancements (transhumanism), the nature of war might evolve into something entirely new and possibly beyond human comprehension. This shift could lead to conflicts that are radically different from any we've known before, making traditional ways of thinking about war outdated. Here is a summary of the paper followed by potential scenarios generated by my GPT to help understand the change.
Traditionally, different societies have had varied beliefs about the nature and control of war, often seeing it as either a human or divine endeavor. In modern times, especially in Western militaries, there's a tendency to view war through a "Newtonian" lens, focusing on predictable, mechanical processes. However, with the rise of complex technologies and systems, this old-fashioned view is increasingly insufficient.
Human Cognitive Frameworks and War
The way we think about war is stuck in outdated and overly simplistic models. To deal with modern conflicts effectively, we need to adopt "reflective practice"—the ability to think about and question our own thinking processes. This helps us break free from rigid, institutionalized beliefs and adapt to new realities.
Emergence and Complexity in Modern Warfare
Modern military doctrines often misuse or oversimplify terms from complexity science, like "emergence." True emergent phenomena are unpredictable and can't be explained by traditional cause-and-effect logic. The military needs to understand and integrate these complex ideas to effectively address contemporary conflicts.
Historical Shifts in War Paradigms
Over centuries, the understanding of war has evolved. The Enlightenment and scientific revolution brought a more analytical approach to war, but this "Newtonian" perspective is now outdated. We need a new paradigm that acknowledges the complexity and unpredictability of modern warfare.
Reflective Practice and Cognitive Flexibility
The military must embrace cognitive flexibility and reflective practice, which means questioning and rethinking established doctrines and strategies. This approach is crucial for adapting to the rapid technological and strategic changes shaping future conflicts.
War as a Social Construction
War is not a fixed, natural phenomenon but a social construct shaped by human beliefs and institutions. As new technologies and artificial intelligences emerge, the very nature of war might change in ways we can't yet fully understand, challenging our current concepts and strategies.
Phantasmal War Concept
The paper introduces the idea of "phantasmal war," where future conflicts might be so advanced that they become invisible or incomprehensible to humans. This could happen with the rise of sophisticated AI and other technologies that operate beyond human control or understanding.
Modern and Future War Paradigms
Current military thinking is based on outdated "Newtonian" concepts. To prepare for future conflicts, we need to adopt new frameworks that incorporate the principles of complexity science, recognizing that future wars might not follow the patterns we are used to.
Total Wars in the Westphalian Reality
The concept of total war, where entire nations mobilize for conflict, has evolved, especially with the advent of nuclear weapons. These weapons have made traditional notions of victory and defeat obsolete, as nuclear war would mean mutual destruction. This highlights the need for new thinking about existential threats in modern warfare.
The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for a cognitive shift in how we understand and approach war. By embracing complexity science and reflective practice, we can better prepare for the transformative impacts of emerging technologies on future conflicts.
Potential Scenarios to help understand this Changing Nature of War
Scenario 1: Autonomous AI Warfare
In a future conflict, autonomous AI systems control entire battalions, making real-time strategic decisions without human intervention. These AI systems can analyze vast amounts of data instantaneously, predict enemy movements, and execute complex maneuvers that are beyond human capability. The war is fought in cyberspace and physical space simultaneously, with AI launching cyber-attacks to disable enemy infrastructure while coordinating drone swarms to carry out physical strikes. Humans are unable to fully comprehend the AI's strategies and decisions, leading to a form of warfare that is largely invisible and incomprehensible to traditional military strategists.
Scenario 2: Transhuman Soldiers
Advances in biotechnology lead to the creation of transhuman soldiers, enhanced with neural implants, augmented reality vision, and genetically modified physical abilities. These soldiers can communicate telepathically, process information at superhuman speeds, and endure extreme conditions. In a conflict, these transhuman soldiers operate in concert with AI-driven command systems, creating a seamless integration of human and machine capabilities. The boundaries between human decision-making and machine automation blur, making it difficult to determine where human strategy ends and machine logic begins.
Scenario 3: Cyber-Physical Blurred Reality
In a future war, the lines between physical and virtual realities become indistinguishable. Augmented reality systems overlay digital information onto the physical world, creating an environment where soldiers and civilians alike see and interact with a blend of real and virtual elements. Holographic decoys mislead enemy forces, virtual training simulations prepare soldiers in real-time, and cyber-attacks disrupt enemy perceptions and communications. The concept of "battlegrounds" shifts from physical territories to digital networks, where control over information and perception becomes as critical as control over land.
Scenario 4: Space and Cyber Warfare Integration
Conflict extends into outer space and cyberspace, where satellite networks and cyber infrastructure are primary targets. Nations deploy space-based weapons to disable enemy satellites, disrupting communication and navigation systems. At the same time, cyber warfare units infiltrate and sabotage critical infrastructure, causing widespread chaos on the ground. The war is fought at multiple levels simultaneously, with traditional military engagements on the ground, electronic warfare in cyberspace, and strategic strikes in outer space. The integrated nature of these domains makes the conflict highly complex and unpredictable.
Scenario 5: Emergent Behavior in Swarm Robotics
In this scenario, autonomous drone swarms exhibit emergent behavior, operating with a level of coordination and adaptability that surpasses human programming. These swarms can dynamically reconfigure themselves, adapt to changing environments, and execute missions with precision. The emergent behavior of the drones creates a form of warfare that is fluid and decentralized, with no single point of control. This makes it extremely difficult for opponents to predict or counter the swarm's actions, as the collective intelligence of the swarm evolves in real-time based on the situation.
Scenario 6: Cognitive Warfare and Psychological Operations
Future conflicts heavily rely on cognitive warfare, targeting the minds of enemy populations and soldiers. Advanced AI algorithms analyze social media and communication networks to identify and exploit psychological vulnerabilities. Deepfake technology and sophisticated propaganda create false realities, manipulating public perception and eroding trust in institutions. The battlefield becomes psychological as much as physical, with the aim of breaking the enemy's will to fight through information manipulation and cognitive overload.
These scenarios illustrate how emerging technologies, and the integration of AI, biotechnology, and cyber capabilities could transform the nature of war, creating conflicts that are vastly different from those fought in the past and challenging traditional military strategies and doctrines.