Canada's Military Un-readiness

A Visionary Approach to Overcoming Today’s Challenges

The article "Don’t Count on Us: Canada’s Military Unreadiness" from War on the Rocks presents an examination of the challenges currently plaguing the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). Through the lens of strategic foresight, this analysis explores the existing issues but also projects novel future scenarios that could potentially reshape Canada's military landscape over the next decade.

1. Recruitment and Retention Crisis

Currently: Canada faces a severe shortfall in its military personnel, with a deficit of about 16,000 members or 15% of the required strength. Efforts to recruit permanent residents have largely failed, as less than 1% of applications are accepted.

Potential Future Scenario: By 2034, the CAF have redefined military service in Canada, positioning themselves as a leader in career innovation, aligned with the profound shifts anticipated in the future workforce landscape. Leveraging advanced AI, the CAF has developed a sophisticated talent management system that not only tracks the skills and career aspirations of each member but also predicts organizational needs and aligns them with personnel development. This system helps in placing the right people in the right roles at the right time.

2. Insufficient Operational Capability

Currently: Much of Canada's military equipment is unserviceable or unavailable. Only 45% of the air force fleet, 46% of naval capacity, and 54% of army resources are operational, severely limiting Canada's ability to engage in significant military operations.

Potential Future Scenario: The CAF now boasts a 90% operational capability across all branches, achieved through robust lifecycle management and real-time analytics for predictive maintenance. Investments in modular and adaptable technology platforms have enabled rapid reconfiguration of systems to meet varying operational demands.

3. Inadequate Defence Spending

Currently: Despite a 70% increase in defence spending from 2017 to 2026, Canada still falls short of the NATO target of 2% of GDP. Current and projected spending levels are insufficient to address the immediate needs of the military.

Potential Future Scenario: By 2034, Canada meets and sustains the NATO target of 2% GDP for defence spending. In a pioneering move, Canada introduces "Defence Bonds," similar to war bonds from historical contexts but adapted for modern times. These bonds are crowd-sourced funding instruments that allow Canadian citizens and corporations to invest directly in their national security. The returns on these bonds are linked not only to financial metrics but also to security enhancements, measured through specific indices like reduced national threats and improved global peace rankings. This direct investment opportunity garners widespread public support and participation, turning national defence funding into a shared civic responsibility. To transparently demonstrate the returns on these investments, the Canadian government deploys a sophisticated online dashboard that tracks and displays the real-time impacts of defence spending on national security. This includes metrics such as readiness levels, technological advancements, and contributions to international peacekeeping. This transparency builds trust and ongoing support for increased defence allocations, as the public can directly see the benefits of their contributions. The CAF develops a dynamic allocation system that automatically adjusts spending based on both global security trends and domestic economic conditions. This AI-driven system ensures that funds are not only spent efficiently but are also directed to the areas of most critical need, optimizing the impact of every dollar spent on enhancing readiness and modernization.

4. Lack of Personnel to Operate New Technologies

Currently: The ongoing personnel crisis means there may not be enough trained members to operate newly procured technologies once they are finally available.

Potential Future Scenario: A new CAF training academy is established, focusing on high-tech warfare, cyber operations, and unmanned systems. It functions under a unique model that mimics both a university and a tech startup incubator, fostering an environment where trainees develop operational skills while simultaneously contributing to real-world projects and cutting-edge research. It ensures that as technologies evolve, so does the curriculum, keeping the CAF agile and adept in the face of rapidly changing global threats. The academy has become a crucible for developing not only tactical expertise but also strategic thinkers who can anticipate future technological shifts and adapt defence strategies accordingly.

5. Cultural and Strategic Complacency:

Currently: Historically, Canada has not prioritized defence, a situation exacerbated by a cultural perception of safety due to geographic advantages and reliance on the proximity of the United States.

Potential Future Scenario: The CAF has leveraged a strategic partnership with the gaming industry to transform public perception and understanding of military roles and responsibilities. This collaboration has resulted in a series of highly engaging and educational interactive games that serve both as recruitment tools and public education platforms. These games, developed in conjunction with leading Canadian game developers and military strategists, offer a range of realistic military scenarios—from peacekeeping missions and disaster response to high-stakes cyber warfare and global tactical operations. The CAF hosts annual gaming tournaments that double as public events and recruitment drives, where gamers can interact with real military personnel and technology. These events not only serve to demystify the armed forces but also highlight career opportunities within the CAF, particularly in fields like cyber defence and unmanned systems operations, appealing directly to the tech-savvy generation.

6. High Operational Tempo with Insufficient Support

Currently: Past commitments to international operations have stretched the Canadian Forces thin without adequate support to sustain these efforts.

Potential Future Scenario: The CAF have revolutionized their operational capabilities with the introduction of the Adaptive Swarm Strategy (ASS). This approach employs a combination of autonomous drones, advanced robotics, and AI-driven tactical systems, enabling the CAF to maintain a high operational tempo with unprecedented adaptability and minimal human risk. "swarm units" consist of hundreds of small, interconnected drones and robotic systems, each capable of executing complex tasks. These units assess situations on the ground, adapt their formation, tactics, and roles dynamically, and provide live feedback to command centres.

7. Sexual Misconduct Issues

Currently: Scandals and ongoing issues with sexual misconduct within the CAF have worsened the recruitment and retention crisis, damaging the institution's reputation and trust.

Potential Future Scenario: The CAF has created the Guardian Initiative which employs technology to enhance safety and accountability. Each uniform is equipped with a "Respect Module," a smart device that monitors signs of distress and automatically reports potential incidents in real-time, while ensuring privacy and confidentiality. This technology is coupled with AI-driven analytics that identifies patterns or hotspots of misconduct, allowing pre-emptive action before issues escalate.

Strategic foresight is a tool for sparking transformative thinking and aligning our current actions with future goals. By moving from a reactive to a proactive approach, we can actively shape our future through the decisions and strategies we implement today.