Future-Ready Command and Control (C2)
A Detailed Analysis of 2024 C2 Enablers
In July 2024, the Global Strategic Partnership (GSP), working alongside RAND Europe and the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD), published a significant paper titled "Command and Control in the Future: Concept Paper 4: C2 Enablers." This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the technological, organizational, and personnel factors that are critical to ensuring future Command and Control (C2) systems remain effective in the evolving Future Operating Environment (FOE). The paper builds on previous research to offer strategic recommendations that enhance the resilience and adaptability of C2 capabilities, meeting the complex demands of modern defence operations.
Importance of Technology Enablers in Future C2 Systems
The paper identifies several key technology enablers that are essential for the future of C2 systems. The following bar chart visualizes the relative importance of these technology areas, emphasizing their role in enhancing the effectiveness of C2 systems in the face of emerging challenges.
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning (AI & ML): These technologies are expected to revolutionize C2 systems by automating complex tasks, improving decision-making processes, and facilitating human-machine teaming. AI & ML provide critical support in scenarios where rapid response is crucial, ensuring that decisions are data-driven and timely.
Encryption: As cyber threats evolve, the need for advanced encryption techniques, including post-quantum cryptography, becomes increasingly important. Encryption is fundamental to maintaining the integrity and security of C2 communications, protecting sensitive information from sophisticated cyber-attacks.
Sensing & Observation: The ability to collect and analyze data from a wide range of sensors is vital for maintaining situational awareness. Advanced sensing technologies, including quantum sensing and space-based observation, are highlighted as key enablers that provide real-time data, enhancing operational effectiveness.
Computational Approaches: Emerging computational methods, such as quantum computing and neuromorphic computing, are crucial for processing vast amounts of data quickly and accurately. These approaches enable faster and more informed decision-making, which is essential in high-stakes military operations.
Synthetic Environments: Virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and mixed reality (MR) offer immersive training and simulation environments. These technologies allow for the testing and rehearsal of C2 strategies in a controlled, risk-free setting, supporting continuous learning and adaptation.
Timeline for Phasing Out Deprecated Enablers in C2 Systems
The paper also emphasizes the importance of phasing out outdated enablers that no longer meet the demands of modern warfare. The following timeline chart outlines a potential phase-out plan for various deprecated C2 enablers, emphasizing the transition from legacy systems to more advanced and integrated solutions.
Legacy Communication Systems: Traditional communication systems, reliant on outdated technology, are set to be phased out by 2025. These systems will be replaced with more resilient, secure, and adaptable communication solutions better suited to modern warfare's dynamic nature.
Manual Data Processing: The reliance on manual data processing is identified as a significant bottleneck in decision-making speed and accuracy. The paper advocates for the complete automation of data processing tasks by 2027, freeing human operators to focus on strategic decision-making.
Standalone C2 Systems: The future of C2 lies in integrated, networked systems rather than isolated, standalone solutions. By 2028, standalone systems will be phased out in favor of interconnected and interoperable platforms across all domains.
Traditional Training Methods: Conventional training approaches, which often fall short in preparing personnel for modern operational complexities, are scheduled for replacement by 2029. Advanced, technology-driven training environments will ensure readiness for future challenges.
Hierarchical Decision-Making: The traditional hierarchical decision-making model is increasingly viewed as too rigid for the fast-paced and unpredictable nature of modern warfare. A shift towards more decentralized, agile decision-making processes is planned by 2030, allowing for quicker and more flexible responses to emerging threats.
Understanding Future Operating Environment (FOE) Threats
The paper also provides an in-depth analysis of the various threats that define the Future Operating Environment (FOE). The following bar chart visualizes the relative levels of concern for each threat, offering insights into the diverse and complex nature of the future security landscape.
Cyber Threats: Cyber-attacks and cyber espionage are expected to intensify, targeting critical C2 infrastructure and communications. These threats could significantly disrupt military operations by compromising data integrity and spreading misinformation.
Advanced Adversaries: Nation-states with advanced military capabilities, including AI and cyber warfare, pose significant threats. These adversaries are likely to employ hybrid warfare tactics, combining conventional military operations with cyber-attacks, information warfare, and proxy forces.
Information Warfare: The use of disinformation, misinformation, and psychological operations (PsyOps) is expected to be a prominent FOE threat. These tactics aim to influence public opinion, disrupt decision-making processes, and undermine the credibility of military operations.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Techniques such as jamming, spoofing, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks are highlighted as significant threats. These methods could disable electronic systems, including those critical to C2 operations.
Terrorism and Insurgency: Non-state actors, including terrorist organizations and insurgent groups, continue to pose persistent threats. These actors may use asymmetric tactics to challenge conventional military forces.
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD): The proliferation of nuclear, chemical, biological, and radiological weapons remains a critical concern. These weapons could cause mass casualties and widespread disruption.
Space and Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Threats: The militarization of space introduces new threats, including the potential for adversaries to target satellites and other space-based assets critical for C2 systems.
Climate Change and Environmental Threats: Resource scarcity and natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, are expected to drive instability and create new security challenges.
Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: The proliferation of drones and robotic systems, including drone swarms, presents both opportunities and challenges. These systems could complicate traditional C2 approaches.
Economic and Political Instability: Global economic shocks and political extremism could lead to increased tensions, conflicts, and challenges to international cooperation, complicating the C2 landscape.
Pandemics and Biological Threats: Global pandemics and bioterrorism present significant threats to military operations, potentially disrupting supply chains and personnel readiness.
Preparing for the Future of C2
The analysis of the 2024 C2 Enablers paper reveals a clear trajectory for the future of Command and Control systems. The future C2 environment will be defined by its complexity, multi-domain nature, technological integration, and the need for adaptability and resilience. Defence organizations must embrace new technologies, develop agile and resilient architectures, and foster a culture of continuous learning and adaptation. Phasing out outdated systems, enhancing cybersecurity, and strengthening partnerships will be key to maintaining a strategic advantage in the increasingly complex and contested global landscape. These steps are essential to building a C2 capability that is responsive to current threats and adaptable to the uncertainties of the future.
Note:
Methodology for Creating Visuals
The analysis was conducted using a custom GPT model I developed using OpenAI.
1. Future Operating Environment (FOE) Threats
2. Timeline for Phasing Out Deprecated Enablers in C2 Systems
The "Timeline for Phasing Out Deprecated Enablers in C2 Systems" visually illustrates potential planned phase-out dates for various legacy systems that are no longer sufficient to meet the demands of modern warfare. These dates are not explicitly stated in the paper. The process involved:
Identification of Legacy Systems: Systems and practices that are outdated and need to be replaced by more advanced alternatives.
Establishing Target Phase-Out Years: For each legacy system, a target year was assigned based on strategic planning and operational requirements. These dates reflect when the system should be fully retired and replaced.
The horizontal bars in the visual represent the period during which each legacy system is expected to be phased out, ending at the target year.
3. Importance of Technology Enablers in Future C2 Systems
The "Importance of Technology Enablers in Future C2 Systems" visually highlights the significance of various technology enablers that are expected to drive the future of Command and Control (C2) systems. The calculation process involved:
Identification of Key Technology Enablers: Technologies critical for the modernization and enhancement of C2 systems were identified (e.g., AI & ML, Encryption, Sensing & Observation).
Scoring the Importance Level: Each technology enabler was evaluated and scored based on its expected impact on future C2 operations, with scores typically ranging from 0 to 100.
The bar lengths in the visual correspond to the importance levels of each technology enabler, illustrating their relative significance in future C2 environments.