The Arctic out to 2055
From the The UK Government’s new Global Strategic Trends Report
The UK Government’s Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 is a comprehensive and forward-looking report designed to analyze the key global trends that will shape our world over the next three decades. Developed by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), this extensive study examines the future of global affairs, focusing on the evolving geopolitical landscape, environmental challenges, technological advancements, and socio-economic shifts. By exploring the interplay between these factors, the report aims to provide policymakers and strategists with insights to anticipate emerging risks and opportunities across various regions.
In this post, we summarized the Arctic section of the report - it examines how global powers are positioning themselves to exploit resources and secure strategic advantages.
Strategic Context of the Arctic
The Arctic is a region of growing environmental and geopolitical importance, covering approximately 14.5 million square kilometers. It has a long history of human presence, with Indigenous populations living there for over 30,000 years. European exploration and commercial exploitation of Arctic resources date back to the 9th century, targeting commodities like whale oil, minerals, and furs.
Throughout the 20th century, the Arctic was a geostrategic focal point during World Wars I and II and the Cold War, serving as the shortest route between competing powers. Militarization increased, with the placement of nuclear weapons and missile systems in the region. However, Mikhail Gorbachev’s 1987 Murmansk speech opened a period of cooperation, leading to the formation of the Arctic Council in 1996. The Council focuses on environmental protection, Indigenous rights, and scientific collaboration, but does not address military security.
In recent years, global warming has reshaped the Arctic, exposing new maritime routes and resource deposits. The region is now a hub for geopolitical competition between Arctic and non-Arctic states, with tensions increasing between Russia, NATO, and China.
Key Drivers of Change in the Arctic
1. Geopolitical Competition
The Arctic states—Canada, Russia, the U.S., Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, and Finland—will face growing competition from both Arctic and non-Arctic actors like China, India, and other distant countries. Russia, isolated politically due to its actions, will seek partnerships with non-Western powers like China and India. Militarization is likely to increase as states protect their defence and economic interests in the Arctic.
2. Changing Arctic Environment
Climate change is rapidly affecting the Arctic, leading to changes in biodiversity, weather patterns, and ocean currents. As the region becomes more accessible, it will present both economic opportunities and environmental threats.
3. Demographic and Societal Shifts
Though the Arctic's overall population growth is expected to remain stable, migration driven by economic opportunities could lead to increased urbanization. Indigenous populations will strive for a stronger role in governance, particularly as they face challenges from climate change and societal transformations.
4. Commercial Value of the Arctic
The Arctic contains vast natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals, and fish stocks. As ice recedes, new maritime routes will open, intensifying competition for resources. Ownership of resources in international waters will become more contentious as global demand rises.
5. Challenges to Governance
The Arctic Council will continue to serve as the leading forum for regional governance, but its effectiveness may be undermined by growing geopolitical tensions between NATO, Russia, and China. Cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic states will be critical to the Council’s ability to function effectively.
Global Power Competition
Russia will prioritize control over the Northern Sea Route and maintain its military presence in the Arctic to challenge NATO. Russia will also strengthen ties with non-Western powers, particularly China.
Western-aligned Arctic states (including Canada, the U.S., and Norway) will protect their northern borders and respond to Russian and Chinese interests. Disputes over continental shelf claims in the Arctic Ocean will remain a source of contention as states continue submitting claims to the UN.
Environmental Impact
The Arctic is warming at a rate three to four times faster than the rest of the world. Sea ice is disappearing, and the Arctic Ocean may experience ice-free summers by the middle of the century. This will have significant effects on global weather patterns, biodiversity, and sea levels, with the potential release of carbon dioxide from melting permafrost exacerbating global warming.
Technology and Infrastructure
Technological advancements, including automation and satellite technology, will play a crucial role in Arctic management. Autonomous platforms will reduce the need for humans to operate in hostile conditions, while new satellite systems will support navigation and climate monitoring. Icebreakers will remain essential for accessing the Arctic, with the most advanced fleets offering strategic advantages.
Conflict and Security
The security environment in the Arctic will evolve, with Russia and China expanding their military presence to safeguard their economic and defence interests. NATO will continue its role in deterring Russian and Chinese expansion, balancing deterrence with a desire to avoid escalating tensions. Non-Arctic states such as India, Japan, and South Korea will seek to engage in the Arctic through scientific cooperation and commercial interests.
Canada's Strategic Role in the Arctic
As one of the key Arctic states, Canada plays a vital role in shaping the future of the region. The Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 report highlights Canada’s significant responsibilities in managing the geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges that are rapidly emerging in the Arctic. With vast territorial claims and important maritime routes such as the Northwest Passage, Canada is positioned to be a leader in Arctic governance and resource management.
Canada’s role in the Arctic Council and its close cooperation with partners such as the United States and NATO will be crucial in maintaining stability in the region. As climate change opens up new opportunities for resource extraction and shipping routes, Canada will need to balance its economic interests with its commitments to environmental protection and Indigenous rights. With its wealth of natural resources and strategic position, Canada will be at the forefront of Arctic policy-making in the decades ahead.
Two versions of the report are available: the full Global Strategic Trends report (465 pages) and the bite-sized summary (48 pages), which offers a more accessible overview of the key themes and findings. There are many more topics and regions in the report to explore.
You can access the reports here: Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055.