The Porcupine Strategy
How Drones and AI are Reshaping Modern Defence
The latest episode of Horns of a Dilemma, a podcast by the Texas National Security Review in partnership with War on the Rocks and the University of Texas at Austin, features a conversation between Marshall Kosloff and Dr. Stacy Pettijohn. They explore the evolving role of drones, artificial intelligence (AI), and the changing dynamics of modern warfare. Dr. Pettijohn, a senior defence expert, provides insights into how these technologies shape current and future conflicts, with a focus on lessons from Ukraine and potential implications for a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.
Revolutions or Evolution?
Dr. Pettijohn challenges the prevailing notion that drones and AI represent a revolutionary shift in military affairs. Instead, she positions them as part of an ongoing evolution - incremental but transformative when integrated into cohesive strategies. Drawing on historical examples like the Gulf War, she illustrates the importance of combining technological advancements with operational planning rather than relying solely on new tools to determine outcomes.
Key Lessons from Ukraine: Innovation and Adaptability
Ukraine’s innovative use of drones in its defence against Russia has underscored the utility of these technologies - but also their limitations. The conflict highlights the importance of adaptability and creative problem-solving in modern warfare:
Customized Drones for Specific Missions: Ukrainian forces have moved beyond mass production, leveraging drones tailored to specific battlefield environments. These customized systems address factors like geography, electromagnetic interference, and adversary countermeasures, enabling high-value missions such as targeting artillery or navigating urban conflict zones.
Cost-Effectiveness and Decoys: Drones are often used to force adversaries to expend expensive air-defence resources on low-cost threats, creating a tactical and financial advantage.
The Role of Innovation: Ukraine demonstrates how smaller nations can adapt commercial technologies to punch above their weight in conflict scenarios, emphasizing ingenuity over scale.
Taiwan’s “Porcupine Strategy”
One of the standout topics in the podcast is Taiwan’s potential to deploy drones as part of a "porcupine strategy." This defence approach aims to make any invasion by China prohibitively difficult and costly by leveraging Taiwan’s geographic constraints and integrating agile, cost-effective systems into its defence.
Drones as a Defensive Asset
Taiwan could deploy smaller, cost-effective drones in both offensive and defensive roles to enhance its deterrence posture:
Offensive and Defensive Roles: FPV (First-Person View) kamikaze drones could harass enemy troops, disrupt logistics, or target naval fleets, while ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) drones could provide real-time targeting data to ground-based systems.
A Layered Defence: Drones would complement traditional assets such as anti-ship missiles, mobile air defences, and artillery, creating a dense, multi-layered defence network. This layered approach could significantly complicate an invader’s plans, forcing them to allocate expensive countermeasures to counteract low-cost threats.
Leveraging Partnerships: Collaborating with Ukraine and allies like the United States could accelerate Taiwan’s adoption of battlefield-proven innovations. For example, integrating autonomous targeting capabilities and jamming-resistant communication systems could greatly enhance operational readiness.
Expanding the Strategy
The strategy is not about brute strength but about maximizing cost asymmetry. By investing in easily produced but highly effective systems, Taiwan can deter aggression by ensuring an invasion would be too slow, costly, and uncertain for China to risk. Partnerships with nations experienced in modern drone warfare could further bolster Taiwan’s capabilities, enabling the development of a fleet optimized for its unique terrain and threat landscape.
Adapting to the Changing Nature of Warfare
Dr. Pettijohn emphasizes that success in modern conflict lies not in isolated technological breakthroughs but in integrating them into broader, adaptable strategies. She identifies several key areas for militaries to focus on as they prepare for the evolving dynamics of warfare:
Invest in Integrated Systems: Combine drones and AI with traditional capabilities like submarines and long-range missiles to maintain readiness and global power projection.
Streamline Innovation Adoption: Overcome bureaucratic barriers to incorporate commercial technologies more rapidly into defence systems.
Foster International Collaboration: Partner with nations like Ukraine to share innovations and accelerate defence modernization.
Focus on Resilient Autonomy: Develop autonomous systems that can operate in contested environments where communication and navigation systems are at risk.
Charting the Path Forward
Dr. Pettijohn’s analysis provides a critical lens for understanding the evolving dynamics of modern warfare. The lessons from Ukraine demonstrate how drones and AI can be powerful tools when integrated into broader defence frameworks.
For Taiwan, deploying cost-effective, innovative systems as part of a layered defence can act as a significant deterrent to adversaries like China. For global powers like the United States, balancing high-end technologies with scalable, affordable options will be essential for maintaining power projection and readiness in contested regions.
As warfare evolves, the integration of drones and AI into adaptive, multi-layered strategies could determine the difference between success and failure in future conflicts. The future lies not in revolutionary tools, but in the ingenuity and foresight to use them effectively.
