What Defence Is Missing While Everyone Watches Iran
Strategic Blind Spots Assessment for April 13, 2026
Since the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, Western defence attention has been almost entirely consumed by the conflict and its effects. But strategic attention is a zero-sum resource, and adversaries understand this. At least nine major defence developments are advancing largely below the radar. Several represent dangers equal to or greater than the Iran conflict itself.
Russia’s Spring Offensive
Russia was already planning a spring offensive before the Iran war began. The distraction has been a strategic windfall. Global attention has shifted away from Ukraine. U.S.-led peace diplomacy has stalled. Oil prices surged past $106/barrel, directly financing Moscow’s war effort.
Russia launched nearly 1,000 drones and 34 missiles in a single late-March bombardment. ISW confirms Russian forces continue offensive operations along multiple Donetsk and Kupyansk axes. Ukraine has responded with over 11,000 drone combat missions per day and reclaimed 480 sq km since late January.
The danger is structural. The Easter ceasefire was violated ~2,299 times in its first hours. No political settlement is near. Russia is using the Iran war as cover for a long-game offensive while Western resources and political will are directed elsewhere.
China’s Gray-Zone Campaign Against Taiwan
Taiwan officials warned in early April that China is exploiting U.S. military distraction to escalate hybrid pressure. Troops and assets have been reallocated from INDOPACOM to CENTCOM. Beijing is aware of the gap.
In late December the PLA conducted “Justice Mission 2025,” the largest military drills in Chinese history, simulating a complete blockade of Taiwan. Coast Guard vessels approached within 1.3 nautical miles of the Matsu islands. Chinese vessels have resumed sustained undersea cable sabotage, reducing Taiwan to roughly 50 to 60 percent of its international bandwidth. Taiwan’s security chief described the pattern as deliberate gray-zone warfare. Under PLA doctrine, severing cables is considered an early step in a potential invasion.
An invasion in 2026 remains unlikely. But these operations are designed to progressively degrade Taiwan’s options and infrastructure in advance of a future decisive moment.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War
On February 26 and 27, Pakistan started open war against Afghanistan’s Taliban government and launched large-scale air and ground strikes across six provinces. Pakistan claims to have killed 684 Taliban fighters, destroyed 252 military posts, and struck 73 sites.
This is a war involving jets, artillery, and ground forces, fought by a nuclear-armed state against a regime-controlled Islamist government. It threatens the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, regional supply routes, and India-Pakistan dynamics. It has received little sustained international coverage.
NATO’s Internal Fracture
The Iran war exposed deep divisions inside NATO. Spain closed airspace to U.S. military jets. France denied airspace for weapons transfers to Israel. Italy denied landing rights at its Sicily base. Poland refused to relocate Patriot batteries to the Middle East.
Trump responded by threatening the alliance’s core guarantees. He called allies “cowards” and stated publicly that non-participants “cannot expect full protection.” Secretary of State Rubio said the U.S. may need to “reassess its relationship with NATO.” U.S. F-35s were pulled from NATO’s Cold Response exercise in Norway and redeployed to the Gulf.
The structural consequence is significant. NATO is transitioning from a collective security alliance toward what analysts describe as a transactional partnership. Europe is accelerating toward strategic autonomy. Whether NATO emerges transformed, diminished, or bifurcated is one of the defining institutional questions of 2026.
Nuclear Proliferation Cascade
The stated objective of the strikes was to prevent Iranian nuclear weaponization. Analysts across multiple institutions warn the strikes may be accelerating the very proliferation they were designed to contain.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact. Pakistan’s defence minister publicly stated its nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed. Turkey’s foreign minister said Ankara might “inevitably have to join the same race.” The U.S. claims to have hit nearly 80 percent of Iran’s nuclear industrial base, but a surviving regime faction may draw the same lesson North Korea did. The highly enriched uranium Iran possessed remains unaccounted for.
A region that had one nuclear-capable state may be trending toward three to five within a decade.
U.S. Missile Defence Stockpiles
This is the most quantifiable capability gap created by the Iran war. The Payne Institute estimates it consumed roughly one-third of the U.S. THAAD interceptor stockpile. During the 12-day war in 2025, the U.S. expended approximately 150 percent of the annual global production rate of those interceptors.
Stimson Center modeling suggests the U.S. would likely run out of key interceptors within the first 24 hours of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific. INDOPACOM assets have been redeployed to CENTCOM. North Korea and China are both aware of this window.
North Korea’s Weapons Buildup
Kim Jong Un ordered a “radical expansion” of missile and shell production for 2026. A new 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine was unveiled. On April 8, North Korea tested cluster-bomb warhead systems mounted on nuclear-capable ballistic missiles designed for low-altitude maneuverable flight to defeat missile defence.
The Arms Control Association estimates North Korea has at least 50 assembled warheads and fissile material for 70 to 90 more. Kim has explicitly drawn the lesson that Iran was struck because it lacked a nuclear deterrent. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Pyongyang this week, deepening the security relationship while U.S. attention is directed elsewhere.
Sudan
Sudan’s civil war entered its fourth year in April. Over 24.6 million people face food insecurity. An estimated 52,000 children have died from malnutrition. Over 12 million are displaced, making it the largest displacement crisis on earth. Over 70 percent of healthcare facilities in conflict zones are inoperative. Cholera has spread to all 18 states.
The SAF is backed by Egypt and Turkey. Russia’s Africa Corps is active in the broader theater. The Council on Foreign Relations rated Sudan as the most likely conflict to escalate in 2026. It receives a fraction of the attention given to Iran.
Sahel and Coastal West Africa
For the fourth consecutive year, sub-Saharan Africa is the most lethal theater for terrorism globally. Three Sahelian states expelled Western counterterrorism forces and invited Russia’s Africa Corps. Al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate and Islamic State’s Sahel Province are expanding toward coastal West Africa. Their first-ever clash in Niger was recorded on April 9.
Analysts describe what began in Mali in 2012 as merging into a single interconnected conflict environment stretching from Mali to western Nigeria. This expansion threatens European and North American citizens working across the region and creates migration and security pressure on NATO’s southern flank.
The Compound Risk
The core problem is not any single crisis. It is multi-theater simultaneity. More active threats are advancing than any major power currently has the bandwidth or resources to manage. Russia is not pausing. China is not pausing. North Korea is not pausing. Jihadist organizations are designed to exploit gaps in attention and governance.
The Iran ceasefire provides a brief window. But the Iran war may be remembered less for what it achieved in Tehran than for what it allowed to advance everywhere else.
Sources include ISW, CFR, Soufan Center, Chatham House, ACLED, Stimson Center, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, and Al Jazeera. Data current to April 13, 2026.
